Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to form soon in the Caribbean Sea, but its path and potential impacts remain uncertain, according to forecasters.
The developing system, currently identified by the National Hurricane Center as Invest 98L, is moving west across the eastern Caribbean. The disturbance is showing increasing organization, with winds up to 45 mph, according to the NHC. Once a defined low-pressure circulation forms, it will be classified as Tropical Storm Melissa.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, The Weather Channel reported.
National Weather Service meteorologist and forecaster Logan Poole said the NWS is watching the formation closely, but that at this time of the year it would be unusual for it to turn our way.
“We’re having showers and thunderstorms moving across the I-20 corridor, and these kinds of fronts are increasingly common in the fall and aren’t conducive to tropical weather,” Poole said. “They come with westerly and northerly winds that push the tropical weather away from us. It could become potent but could ride north to the Bahamas and should remain east of us.”
Meteorologists say the storm has access to warm, deep water that could allow it to strengthen.
Forecast models currently show three possible scenarios for the formation’s path:
- A quick northward turn, carrying the storm over Hispaniola and out into the central Atlantic.
- A westward track into Central America, which appears less likely.
- A later northward curve, bringing potential impacts to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week.
For now, forecasters report that the threat to the U.S., particularly South Florida, appears low, but not zero. Depending on Melissa’s eventual track, forecasters say heavy rain and gusty winds could affect parts of the Gulf region late next week, though it is too soon to determine beyond what we currently know if there’s any specific threat to Mississippi.
